A major $XRP breakout may be approaching after a difficult first half of the year, during which the token lost 27.1% in Q1 and another 22.4% in the second. Technical charts and seasonal data have now produced a rare alignment for the breakout to happen.
On the daily TradingView chart, $XRP is trapped inside a descending broadening wedge, a pattern considered a classic late-stage accumulation formation. The exhaustion of selling pressure is also confirmed by the RSI indicator, which has formed a bullish divergence, while buyers continue to defend the local bottom at $1.05.
Historical data from CryptoRank confirms that Q3 has traditionally been the most stable period of the year for $XRP. Over the past seven years, Q3 has not closed in negative territory once.
July's current return remains a modest 4.19%, but historical cycles show that the token regularly uses the middle of summer to recover from sharp June declines. $XRP fell 22.1% in June 2026. In July 2023, following an early-summer decline, the token delivered a 47.6% rally, while a similar reversal in July 2025 generated a 35% return for investors.
Given the median Q3 return of 25.8%, the price spring compressed over the past six months has accumulated significant mathematical upside potential.
$XRP road to $1.60: What could stall the reversal ahead of Q4
$XRP is currently trading near $1.08 and, to confirm a breakout from the wedge and trigger a new growth wave, buyers must break through and secure the price above the $1.12–$1.18 resistance zone.
A successful breakout above this wall would open the way toward medium-term targets in the $1.45–$1.60 range, representing projected upside of roughly 50%.
An immediate move higher could be limited by broader market stagnation and a temporary slowdown in inflows into US spot $XRP ETFs. Nevertheless, the current consolidation inside the wedge is creating a strong base ahead of Q4, when $XRP's average historical return reaches a record 133.3%.