Bitcoin has traded within the $57,500 – $67,300 horizontal channel for over two months, reflecting a sideways trend that left users indecisive about the cryptocurrency’s next direction. The channel has narrowed into a triangular structure since the third week of July, with the digital asset’s trading volume declining steadily.
However, the narrowing price structure leaves Bitcoin vulnerable to a sharp move, with a breakdown remaining one possible outcome.
Bitcoin’s Downward Potential
Peter Brandt, CEO of global trading firm Factor, believes the current Bitcoin outlook favors further downward movement. Brandt plotted a technical analysis covering Bitcoin’s price action from March 2026, showing how the crypto moved in an ascending channel before declining sharply in May.
Bitcoin has struggled to recover its bullish momentum ever since, despite multiple attempts. Brandt does not expect an upcoming change in the current trend to favor the bulls. However, he maintains caution, telling his followers on X that he is “not in the bet yet.”
Why Bitcoin Could Surge Soon
Renowned crypto analyst Michael Van de Poppe had a contrary opinion. Van de Poppe explained that the basis trade has kept traders short $BTC futures for years. According to him, that is why there is a huge amount of negative positioning in the futures market.
However, the analyst highlighted the only time the basis trade did not pressure Bitcoin’s price, noting that it occurred in 2025 and Bitcoin surged from $75,000 to $125,000. According to him, the same signal is evident in the market, and traders want to flip long despite a net-negative basis trade strategy.
What On-Chain Data Suggests
CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha has identified a sharp shift toward Bitcoin accumulation ahead of this week’s US inflation data. The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s 60-day accumulation vs. distribution by cohort data shows that addresses holding more than 10,000 $BTC recorded net accumulation of 46,420 $BTC on August 9, the highest level since March 15.
Taha noted that this reading is nearly double Bitcoin’s accumulation peak recorded in mid-March. The boost in $BTC accumulation points to a significant acceleration in activity among the largest balance group.
Although large holders are accumulating Bitcoin, addresses holding 0.1–1 $BTC recorded about 9,700 $BTC in net distribution. This marks a sharp reversal from the roughly 11,600 $BTC accumulated by the cohort on July 5, resulting in a shift of more than 21,000 $BTC toward distribution.
Bitcoin faces conflicting signals, with bearish technicals contrasting with strong accumulation among large holders. For now, the cryptocurrency remains caught between downside risks and bullish positioning.
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