Crypto analysts are already looking at how high bitcoin $BTC$64,053.40 could rally in the next cycle, expected to begin later this year, with ambitious targets ranging from $300,000 to $500,000.

But one important data point runs counter to those forecasts, suggesting that gains may be more measured than ever.

Unlike gold or stocks, bitcoin tends to move in clear four-year cycles centered on the mining reward halving, an event that halves the amount of new bitcoin produced per block every 4 years. Think of it as a programmed 50% reduction in the growth rate of the money supply.

The first halving happened in 2012, and the fifth one is scheduled for April 2028. In the past, prices have tended to bottom out and begin a new bull run roughly 18 months before the halving. That same bull run then peaks about 16-18 months after the halving, paving the way for a year-long bear market. That's the four-year cycle, and the peak of the next one is expected in 2029.

On the back of this, analysts and market experts have been calling for a massive bull run in the next few years.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt anticipates a peak between $300,000 and $500,000. Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra expect prices to hit $500,000 by 2029, citing booming demand for spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Reality check

However, while the four-year cycles have consistently produced new all-time highs, the reality of this cycle is different.

As bitcoin grows, matures, and becomes more valuable, it takes significantly more capital to push it meaningfully higher. The track record of cycle highs proves it:

  • 2013: $266
  • 2017: nearly ~$20,000 (75x from previous high)
  • 2021: ~$69,000 (3.5x from 2017)
  • 2025: $126,000 (just 1.8x from 2021)

What this means is that bull runs are getting steadier, with more measured gains rather than moonshots. If this trend continues, the next peak may fall well short of the anticipated $300,000 to $500,000 levels. (A rally to $300,000 or more requires over 2 times the jump from the 2025 high)

This is not necessarily bad news, however.

As noted earlier, the bigger the asset becomes, the more capital is required to move it higher. And with the institutionalization of the market and an ever-increasing array of advanced risk management products, such as bitcoin ETF futures, options, volatility bets, arbitrage funds, and structured products with embedded options, $BTC is naturally becoming less volatile and more Wall Street-like.