Most of Wall Street’s leading banks and research firms expect the Fed to raise interest rates in September. Estimates compiled by The Wall Street Journal as of today show that market expectations are shifting not only towards a possible rate hike this week, but also towards a second hike before the end of the year.

Nineteen of the 21 institutions surveyed predict the Fed’s next move will be a rate hike in September. While the vast majority of institutions expect a total tightening of 50 basis points throughout 2026, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and RBC present a more hawkish view, forecasting a total rate increase of 75 basis points.

Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to raise interest rates in September, but believes the total increase throughout 2026 will be only 25 basis points. Jefferies, on the other hand, predicts the Fed’s next move will be a 25 basis point rate cut in December instead of a September increase. Oxford Economics expects no rate changes throughout 2026 and forecasts the first cut in 2027.

According to WSJ data, the institutions’ current Fed forecasts are as follows:

(September forecast and total change forecast for 2026)

  • Bank of America: September interest rate hike — +75 basis points
  • Deutsche Bank: September interest rate hike — +75 basis points
  • RBC: September rate hike — +75 basis points
  • Barclays: September rate hike — +50 basis points
  • BNP Paribas: September interest rate hike — +50 basis points
  • Citigroup: September interest rate hike — +50 basis points
  • HSBC: September interest rate hike — +50 basis points
  • JPMorgan: September rate hike — +50 basis points
  • Mizuho: September rate hike — +50 basis points
  • Morgan Stanley: September rate hike — +50 basis points
  • MPA Macro: September rate hike — +50 basis points
  • MUFG: September rate hike — +50 basis points
  • Nationwide: September rate hike — +50 basis points
  • Nomura: September rate hike — +50 basis points
  • Piper Sandler: September rate hike — +50 basis points
  • Société Générale: September interest rate hike — +50 basis points
  • TD Securities: September rate hike — +50 basis points
  • UBS: September rate hike — +50 basis points
  • Wells Fargo: September interest rate hike — +50 basis points
  • Goldman Sachs: September rate hike — +25 basis points
  • Jefferies: Interest rate cut in December — -25 basis points
  • Oxford Economics: No change in 2026 — first interest rate cut expected in 2027.

*This is not investment advice.