Prediction markets are assigning a growing probability that $XRP will reclaim the $2 level before the end of 2027, with traders currently seeing the highest odds of a breakout by December 31, 2027.
Indeed, markets are pricing a 67% chance that $XRP reaches the milestone by the end of 2027.
The probability stands at 61% by June 30, 2027, 59% by September 30, 2027, and 48% by March 31, 2027.
For 2026, the odds remain considerably lower at 23% by December 31 and just 6% by September 30, according to Polymarket data retrieved by Finbold on September 6.
The market suggests participants expect $XRP to take several more quarters to mount a sustained move above $2, a level well above the token’s current trading range below $1.50.
The prediction market outlook comes as $XRP continues to trade far below a major technical resistance level identified by cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez.
As reported by Finbold, Martinez noted that $XRP has been forming a decade-long ascending triangle pattern on the monthly chart.
The analyst argued that a monthly close above $3.66 would confirm a breakout and potentially open the door to significantly higher price targets over the long term.
While the $3.66 level remains the primary technical hurdle, $XRP would first need to reclaim $2 before challenging higher resistance zones.
Recent market activity also shows traders remain engaged despite price weakness. $XRP recorded elevated trading volumes through August, even as the token pulled back from its recent highs near $1.70.
$XRP price analysis
By press time, $XRP was trading at $1.42, up about 1% in the past 24 hours. On the weekly timeframe, the asset was also in the green, gaining nearly 2%.
Following these modest gains, $XRP’s technical structure remains constructive. At the current price, the token is trading above both its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.17 and its 200-day SMA at $1.27, a sign that the medium- and long-term trend remains bullish.
The gap between the current price and these moving averages suggests buyers remain in control despite recent volatility.
Momentum is also supportive, with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) at 60.37. The reading remains in neutral territory, indicating bullish momentum without the market being overbought. This suggests $XRP still has room to advance before approaching the 70 level that often signals overheating.
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