$XRP may be showing early signs of a shift in momentum in its monthly RSI from a downtrend to an uptrend after months of persistent weakness.
This is according to a market outlook from EGRAG Crypto, a prominent market analyst. In an X post on July 5, he noted that the latest move is not simply another short-term bounce, but the start of a distribution phase targeting higher levels for the monthly $XRP RSI.
In the commentary, EGRAG highlighted a macro momentum pattern that has appeared during previous $XRP market cycles. He also identified how the monthly RSI briefly slipped below a historically important support zone.
$XRP Fell Below Historic RSI Support Zone
EGRAG stated that the RSI fell to the 40 region, an area it has not visited before in its history. This happened in June, when $XRP’s RSI fell to a low of 40.59.
This saw the altcoin’s oscillator break below a historic support zone that has repeatedly coincided with major cycle bottoms. In previous market cycles, the indicator formed a clear 1-2-3 bottoming structure before momentum shifted higher. The monthly RSI retests the support level around 43.66 three times, forms a durable bottom, then starts to recover higher.
In the first circle, the monthly RSI dipped to 44.25, forming 1 in December 2019, then fell to 43.75 in March 2020, forming 2. It then concluded the accumulation with a final dip to 44.01 in June 2020.
During the second circle, the $XRP oscillator dipped to 43.90 in June 2022, 43.95 in August 2022, and 44.42 in December 2022. This formed the 1, 2, and 3 bottoming patterns, respectively.
This time, however, the oscillator dropped below that historical range. Rather than viewing the move as outright bearish, EGRAG believes the steeper dip may represent a temporary deviation designed to shake out weaker market participants before momentum begins recovering. EGRAG called this the manipulation phase.
Notably, the oscillator is rebounding after touching the 40 region, currently sitting at 42.5. The recovery suggests that momentum is starting to shift back to positive.
$XRP RSI Following the AMD Model
Meanwhile, EGRAG further discussed the current development with the application of the Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution (AMD) model. He noted that this model can also apply to the monthly oscillator instead of price analysis alone.
According to the analyst, the expected accumulation phase was around the historical support zone, but the $XRP RSI broke below it. That was the manipulation, which he believes precedes a decisive break higher.
For this to happen, EGRAG outlined several important levels. A recovery above 43.66 would represent the first sign of improving momentum, while clearing 46.50 would strengthen the bullish case. However, the analyst views a monthly close above the 50 level as the most significant confirmation that $XRP’s macro momentum has shifted.
Notably, a rising RSI, especially on higher timeframes, shows that upside momentum is returning to the market. Such a scenario would have bullish implications for the $XRP price, potentially sending it higher.