Strategy Founder and Executive Chairman Michael Saylor believes Bitcoin is at a key inflection point right now, one that could mark its bottoming phase.
During Strategy’s Q2 earnings call on Thursday, Saylor claimed that $BTC had dropped to its 200-week Moving Average (MA). In saying so, he urged investors to take advantage of the signal to add positions.
He added,
The right price signal to look at is the 200-week MA, and you see it’s a pretty up and to the right message and signal. You can see the periods of exuberance around late 2021; there was a massive premium.
Indeed, the 200-week MA marked Bitcoin’s bottoming phase in 2022. However, it stayed below the level for a while before recovering above it.
At the time of wrting, several on-chain signals did suggest that the crypto was indeed close to bottoming out.
What’s derailing Bitcoin’s recovery?
Here, it’s worth pointing out that Saylor added that there are only five key factors still keeping $BTC from a strong rebound. According to him, the first headwind is artificial intelligence (AI) capital expansion. Investors opted for AI build-outs, and Bitcoin miners joined the race.
With capital flowing to AI build-outs, crypto has been left to dry. On when the headwind will be resolved, Saylor noted,
We think at some point we’ll get through the biggest phase of that build-out, and we’ll settle into an equilibrium, and that headwind will become neutral, a tacking wind, or it’ll subside.
Trade tensions and the ongoing Middle East crisis have been some of the macro headwinds derailing Bitcoin too.
Finally, the Fed rate policy and CLARITY Act delay have also blocked the crypto from seeing sustainable relief.
The exec added that these headwinds could also become tailwinds if they improve.
As we get good news in any of those areas, I think that’ll be very positive for the entire Bitcoin market.
Now, the impact of the last two factors could be felt soon. Notably, the CLARITY Act has until next week to make any meaningful progress this year. As far as the Fed rate policy is concerned, another hike is expected in September. However, some traders have already shrugged off its potential bearish impact.
In the meantime, $BTC’s overall demand improved slightly in H2 2026, but it was still negative. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was valued at $63.7K with a likely sideways structure until September’s Fed rate decision.
Final Summary
- Saylor called Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average a key price signal that could allude to price recovery.
- He believes that AI rotation, Fed rate policy, CLARITY Act, the Middle East, and trade tensions could determine when crypto winter ends.