Coinbase (COIN) reports second-quarter results Thursday after the close, but analysts covering the company largely agree that the headline numbers may matter less than management's outlook for the second half of the year and the evolving regulatory landscape.
The consensus view is that Q2 was another difficult quarter for crypto trading. Spot trading volumes fell across the industry as investors remained cautious, bitcoin BTC$64,004.09 and ether (ETH) traded lower on average than in the prior quarter and retail participation stayed muted. Crypto markets remained under pressure through most of the second quarter, with bitcoin losing roughly 14% during the period while ether dropped about 25%. While June showed some improvement, most analysts say it wasn't enough to offset weakness in April and May.
Where analysts differ is in how much that slowdown will hurt Coinbase's results and how quickly newer businesses can reduce the company's dependence on trading fees.
Trading slowed sharply
Barclays, Benchmark, Clear Street and Compass Point all cut estimates ahead of earnings, citing lower spot trading activity.
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish estimates Coinbase processed roughly $152 billion of trading volume during the quarter, well below the Street's expectation of about $178 billion. He expects adjusted EBITDA to come in roughly 3% below consensus, pointing to weaker blockchain rewards and institutional trading revenue.
Clear Street's Owen Lau also lowered estimates, projecting approximately $160 billion in trading volume and $301 million in adjusted EBITDA after weaker-than-expected retail activity.
Benchmark's Mark Palmer similarly reduced his EBITDA forecast to $377 million, while Compass Point expects revenue to slightly miss consensus but believes EBITDA will be roughly in line with expectations.
Coinbase still rises and falls with crypto trading activity, a dependency that has become more apparent over the past year. The company has spent heavily to diversify revenue through stablecoins, derivatives, payments, tokenization and its Base blockchain. Those businesses continue to grow, but they remain relatively small compared with transaction revenue.
Subscription stability
One area where analysts are more constructive is subscription and services revenue.
This segment includes interest income from USDC, staking rewards, custody fees, Coinbase One subscriptions and institutional services. Because those businesses are less tied to daily trading volumes, analysts expect them to provide a cushion against weaker transaction revenue.