The headwinds hitting bitcoin aren’t landing, even as they inflict damage on major traditional assets. That relative strength, however, may still get challenged by the resilient Dollar Index.
Futures tied to WTI oil have topped $90 and are up nearly 9% for the week, as of this writing, according to data from TradingView. A higher oil price means more inflation and less room for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Longer-duration government bond yields across the advanced world continue to surge on fiscal concerns. The U.S. 10-year yield, which influences borrowing costs in the economy, has jumped 10 basis points to 4.81%, the highest since 2023. This can cause financial tightening, disincentivizing risk-taking in the economy and in financial markets.
Both developments are causing jitters in stock markets. Wall Street’s S&P 500 index fell for the third straight trading day on Monday, reaching a four-week low. Asian stocks are bleeding as of this writing, as the oil rally poses macro risks to energy-importing nations.
Gold, too, has come off sharply from $4,700 per ounce to $4,300 per ounce in less than a week.
Bitcoin, however, remains steady. The follow-through to Friday’s 3% drop to just under $77,000 has been tepid at best, leaving prices choppy between $76,000 and $80,000, data from CoinDesk show.
A market that holds up in the face of headwinds is telling you it’s bullish. One interpretation is that rising bond yields are the result of fiscal concerns, not economic growth, and are hence boosting demand for hard assets like bitcoin that fall outside the fiat financial system.
Whatever the case, $BTC’s price action is offering hope to bulls. Still, it’s not without some challenge, and that’s coming from the Dollar Index (DXY), which is looking to extend last week’s nearly 1% gain to 99.67.
A closer look at the DXY price chart shows the index is hovering close to a pivotal bullish trendline from the 2011 lows. A bounce from this support could galvanize more demand for the greenback.
Historically, $BTC has had an inverse relationship with the dollar.
Trendlines are widely watched, and that attention makes them self-fulfilling. Because so many traders draw the same diagonal support and resistance levels on their charts, those lines become reference points for entries, exits, and stop-losses. When price approaches a trendline, the collective reaction — buying near support, selling near resistance — often pushes the market in the expected direction, reinforcing the line’s validity.