Bitcoin traders focused in on macro factors when describing their outlook of where the digital currency will go next as it traded within a relatively narrow range.
The world’s largest digital currency by total market value fell to roughly $63,700 today, dropping from $65,341.83 and suffering a modest decline of approximately 2.4%, according to Coinbase data from TradingView.
Following this downward movement, several analysts offered their views on what the cryptocurrency will next.
“Bitcoin enters August rangebound after five weeks of sideways trading which has pinned the market in a narrow band between 62k and 66k,” Jeff Anderson, managing director at STS Digital, said via email. “Conviction is thin on both sides as summer illiquidity reigns supreme with attention focused on AI.”
“Volatility has naturally compressed (IVs are in their 1st percentile) while we wait on unresolved catalysts: the Fed’s next move and the fate of the Clarity Act,” he added, speaking to the outcome of the upcoming policy meeting and the proposed legislation that would provide better guard rails for digital assets.
“A decisive break of either level in spot should see volatility expand quickly, and the closely watched CPI this Wednesday will be our first indicator following Warsh’s inflation focused press conference.”
Benjamin Sarquis Peillard, founder & CEO of credit marketplace Cap, also offered his perspective.
“Traders should watch Wednesday’s CPI print and whether Bitcoin can close above $66,000,” he stated via emailed commentary. “Soft inflation data has historically eased rate-hike fears and supported risk assets, while the recent weak jobs report already provided a mild tailwind.”
“With U.S. Bitcoin ETFs posting their strongest inflows since April - led by BlackRock’s IBIT - sustained institutional demand is now the key floor in this thinner summer market,” the analyst added.
He emphasized that he is also monitoring other variables, stating that “Soft CPI combined with continued flows could catalyze a breakout, but any yield spike or further regulatory delay risks testing supports. We’re also watching whether gold and commodities catch a bid and if Bitcoin moves in parallel.”
Paul Howard, senior director at crypto trading firm Wincent, offered a different point of view.
“Bitcoin’s recent price action has largely been driven by steady ETF inflows being offset by OTC selling from miners and Strategy,” he said through emailed commentary. "As a result, BTC has remained range-bound between $64k and $67k over the past week, despite global cryptocurrency trading volumes sitting at their lowest levels in three years.
“My expectation is for this consolidation to persist over the next three to four weeks, at least until there is further clarity on the CLARITY Act,” Howard continued. “That is likely to be the next meaningful catalyst for a pickup in volatility and market participation, leaving sentiment subdued through at least mid-September.”
“Positioning across derivatives markets also suggests investors remain well hedged, implying that any significant move outside the current range would come as a surprise without a material fundamental catalyst,” he concluded.
Todd Ault, who is the founder of Ault Blockchain, offered a positive outlook for the digital currency.
“The jobs report certainly makes it harder for the Fed to justify another hike, but I would not make Bitcoin’s outlook about one Fed meeting,” he stated via email. “Inflation, oil and liquidity are all still important."
“What matters to me is that if the economy is slowing and the next move in liquidity is ultimately easier, that is a very constructive environment for Bitcoin," he stated. "I have been a long-term believer in Bitcoin, and I think that setup continues to improve.”
“I think Bitcoin goes higher, but I would expect plenty of volatility along the way. That is Bitcoin,” Ault emphasized. “You can get a 10% move in either direction without changing the long-term story.”
"As a Bitcoin holder and miner, I am much more focused on adoption, institutional demand, the supply dynamics of the network and where global liquidity is going over the next several quarters."
“Remember that Bitcoin is unique as a pristine form of collateral for lending and borrowing. On those factors, I remain very bullish.”