Bitcoin $BTC$66,249.44 and the broader crypto market are rising amid reports that the White House has agreed to the wording of an ethics package for the Clarity Act. The move could improve the chances of the long-pending legislation progressing through Congress, paving the way for stronger institutional participation.
It remains to discern who is buying the cryptocurrency and whether the price rise is backed by solid hands. The answer to the latter is yes.
The most obvious buyers are institutions, primarily through U.S.-listed ETFs. The spot bitcoin funds have attracted over $700 million in investor money across five trading days, the longest streak of inflows since May, according to SoSoValue data.
"This renewed institutional interest stands in contrast to the severe selling pressure and record redemptions experienced earlier in the summer, notably $7.5 billion between mid-May and June," Tagus Capital said in an email.
Onchain wallet data shows long-term holders are also snapping up coins. These are addresses with a history of keeping their $BTC for at least six months.
"Large Bitcoin whales have been building up their positions over the last two months, while medium-sized wallets have been selling. This divergence in behaviour could be a ‘constructive signal’ for $BTC in the medium term, according to CryptoQuant [data]," Alex Kuptsikevich, the chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email.
Blockchain analysis firm Glassnode noted that the market looks much more balanced now than it did a month ago.
"Overall, the market appears increasingly balanced, with long-term conviction providing support while speculative participation remains contained," it said.
There are also signs of growing participation in $BTC futures and options. Recently, a trader (or group of traders) purchased large bull call spreads in bitcoin, targeting $72,000 by month-end.
In short, the buyer profile right now appears diverse
Risks, however, remain. The most important near-term headwind is U.S. Treasury bond issuances, which could drain liquidity from the system and weigh on risk assets.
"Treasury bill settlements are expected to result in net new issuance of $56 billion, followed by an additional $37 billion on Thursday and a smaller coupon settlement of $13 billion on Friday. Treasury bill issuance will likely remain heavy until Labor Day, creating a headwind for risk assets as we move through the summer," Mott Capital Management's Founder Michael Kramer said in a blog post.