Bitcoin $BTC$78,808.74 rose as much as 1.6% since midnight UTC to $79,742 as U.S. Central Command said it destroyed five Iranian oil tankers on Tuesday night and Tehran responded with missile strikes on American bases in Jordan.
Brent crude topped $100 a barrel for the first time since July. The largest cryptocurrency was recently trading near $79,000. Ether ETH$2,484.00 is 0.3% higher at $2,490 and XRP has added 0.4% to $1.42
The rally is happening against a risk-off backdrop in other markets. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.5% at the European open following a 1.2% decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday. Nasdaq 100 index futures are little changed since midnight.
Crypto is moving with the metals instead. Gold is up 1.06% at $4,401 and silver has added 1.33%. That is close to the inverse of Sept. 2, when U.S. strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG) targets sent bitcoin lower alongside equities.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw a $46.65 million net outflow on Tuesday, according to SoSoValue, following $174.6 million of inflows on Friday.
Derivatives positioning
- Taker ratio turns neutral: The taker buy-sell volume ratio has flipped to neutral after two consecutive days of bearish readings, coinciding with bitcoin's bounce back above $79,000 early today. Takers are traders who fill orders using market orders, in contrast to makers, who place passive limit orders.
- Short buildup unwinds: $BTC's retreat from $80,000 yesterday was matched by a pickup in open interest (OI) across major USD- and USDT-denominated futures, pointing to a buildup of short positions. Some 24 hours later, that same OI has declined alongside the spot-price bounce, according to data source Velo. The shorts taken yesterday may have been closed, though the decline also suggests no fresh bullish capital has entered the market.
- Positioning stays light: The overall bitcoin open interest tally remains well under 700K, pointing to still-light positioning. The same holds for the ether market.
- $HYPE's rally looks spot-driven: $HYPE hit a record high of $88 over the weekend and has since steadied just below that level, after prices surged 60% in August. Yet the OI tally has barely changed, standing at 1.02 million $HYPE, well below the January peak of around 59 million $HYPE. That divergence suggests the spot-price rise has been driven mainly by spot-market flows rather than leveraged futures activity.
- $ZEC longs build: Zcash's futures OI ticked higher, snapping a two-day decline as the token's price hit a record high of $1,260. OI has risen steadily alongside price since Aug. 1, a combination pointing to a buildup of long positions. $ZEC's 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) is the most positive among major cryptocurrencies, a sign buyers have been more aggressive, trading via market orders rather than passive limit orders.
- $UNI diverges lower: On the opposite end of the CVD spectrum is $UNI, whose price is under pressure for a third straight day, trading near $6.65, down 1.4% since midnight UTC. The negative CVD alongside near-record futures OI points to potential volatility ahead.
- Bitcoin vol gauge ticks higher: Traders may want to watch bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, which is now hovering above its 50- and 100-day simple moving averages. That could mark the start of another volatility spike, typically a feature of bear markets, though August's price rise also occurred against a backdrop of rising BVIV. Ether's equivalent gauge, EVIV, is also looking to break above its 100-day SMA.
- Options traders eye CPI: In options listed on Deribit, bitcoin's front-end volatility remains relatively flat, a sign traders aren't yet pricing in big moves ahead of Friday’s CPI release. Front-end risk reversals have repriced meaningfully in favor of calls, or bullish bets, according to Laser Digital.
- Calls dominate volume leaders: The top five most-traded instruments by 24-hour volume are all calls, at strike prices ranging from $80,000 to $90,000. The same holds true for ether.
Token talk
- Topping the CoinDesk 100 is Solana-based DePIN token grass GRASS$0.3677, up 12% since midnight UTC at $0.37 and 11% over 24 hours.
- Venice Token VVV$26.12 added 6.5% on the day to $27.59 and is 55% higher over 24 hours after setting a record high, with the AI platform completing the largest discretionary token burn in its history and announcing a $NEAR integration.
- Perpetuals exchange token Lighter (LIT) climbed 9% to $5.27, extending an 11% gain over 24 hours on the back of consecutive days where volume topped $125 million — up from last Wednesday’s daily total of $92 million.
- The privacy trade is back with zcash ($ZEC) rising by 5.1% to $1,238.61 while dash DASH$66.15 is up by 4.7% to $65.42. Monero (XMR) is the exception, down 0.12% on the day and 4.6% over 24 hours.
- Raydium RAY$1.3920 reversed hard, adding 5.8% to $1.31 and 19% over 24 hours after falling 6.7% on Tuesday, the sharpest turnaround in the CoinDesk 100.
- Ethena (ENA) gained 5.3% and $NEAR Protocol $NEAR$2.5450 4.9% to $2.43, the latter alongside the Venice integration news.
- Polkadot DOT$1.1768 is the day's biggest decliner, losing 5.8% to $1.17. It remains 10% higher over 24 hours, placing the entire decline after midnight UTC.