Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen acknowledged that his previous prediction for Bitcoin did not materialize and announced a reassessment of his market outlook. He stated that he had believed Bitcoin would not surpass its May peak, but $BTC did indeed rise above that level, reaching approximately $86,000. Cowen added that the current market structure is sending different signals than in past cycles.

According to Cowen, the main mistake was assuming that the Fed’s interest rate hike would have a direct negative impact on Bitcoin in the short term. The analyst explained that he thought rising energy prices would increase bond yields, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates, followed by a stronger dollar and a decline in Bitcoin’s value. Cowen stated that his expectations regarding energy prices, bond yields, interest rates, and the dollar largely materialized, yet Bitcoin rose along with the dollar instead of falling.

Cowen commented, “The problem was that I assumed the interest rate hike would immediately bring Bitcoin down. The data doesn’t actually support that.”

The analyst said that when reviewing past interest rate hike periods, he saw that Bitcoin did not always fall immediately after the Fed’s first rate hike. Cowen cited the interest rate hike cycles that began in December 2015 and March 2022 as examples, stating that in some periods Bitcoin continued to rise after the rate hike, while weakness emerged in the following months.

Similarly, Cowen noted that Bitcoin did not experience an immediate sharp sell-off following the interest rate hikes in September 2018 and September 2022, arguing that the price movement in September 2026 is not entirely inconsistent with historical examples in this respect.

Another important point highlighted by Cowen is that Bitcoin is performing more strongly in the current midterm election cycle than in previous periods. According to the analyst, Bitcoin has risen by approximately 50 percent from its lows seen in the summer months. Similar recoveries in 2018 and 2022 remained at around 40 percent, with Bitcoin reaching lower peaks. This time, however, $BTC reaching a higher peak, according to Cowen, signals a significant shift in the market structure.

Cowen believes that spot Bitcoin ETFs may also have contributed to strengthening $BTC’s relationship with traditional financial markets. Therefore, he stated that the assumption that past Bitcoin cycles will repeat themselves should now be used with more caution.

The analyst refrained from making a definitive prediction about how high Bitcoin could rise in the short term. Cowen stated that more weight should be given to the opinions of analysts who accurately predicted the current rise, and that his own approach would also take market structure into greater consideration.

However, Cowen does not completely rule out the possibility of a correction in Bitcoin later in the year. But he emphasizes that such a pullback does not necessarily have to create a new low, as he has thought in the past. According to Cowen, since Bitcoin has formed a higher peak, a potential next correction could also result in a “higher low on a macro scale.”

Cowen also said that a significant correction in stock markets would likely be necessary for a serious drop in Bitcoin. Arguing that a pullback of only around 10% in the S&P 500 might not be enough to push Bitcoin to new lows, the analyst suggested that a larger risk-aversion movement might be required.

Cowen, evaluating the current situation, stated, “The burden of proof has now shifted from the bulls to the bears. The bulls have established a higher peak. If there is going to be significant weakness in the fourth quarter, it is now the bears who need to show it.”

*This is not investment advice.