In his latest video analysis, cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen assessed the current market situation of Bitcoin in light of its technical indicators and historical cycles. According to Cowen, Bitcoin has entered a critical technical consolidation phase that will determine its direction in the near future.

Cowen argued that two key levels stand out in Bitcoin’s technical chart:

  • Bear Market Resistance Band: Continues to slide downwards around the $69,000 level.
  • 200-Week Moving Average: Continues its upward movement around the $63,700 level.

The analyst stated that with the bear market resistance band falling and the 200-week average rising, the price is becoming increasingly squeezed, and the market will have to make a breakout decision before entering the last quarter of the year.

“The process is narrowing down to two levels. Bitcoin will either break above the bear market resistance band or fall below the 200-week moving average. A decision has to be made, and once that decision is made, volatility will increase significantly.”

Cowen, drawing attention to historical cycles, reminded that July in midterm election years generally sees increases, while August sees declines. BTC, which rose by approximately 20% in 2022 and 40% in 2018, also closed July 2026 with a gain of around 7%. In past periods, August resulted in losses of 15% in 2022, 15% in 2018, and 18% in 2014.

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Cowen stated that a new “window of weakness” could open in the market from mid-August onwards, and a potential pullback of around 10% could push the price back below the $60,000 level.

Cowen pointed out that the MVRV Score, one of the on-chain metrics, has not yet reached its historical low of below zero. Stating that a price bottoming out, consistent with historical cycles, would be necessary for these indicators to reach zero, the analyst said that the long-term Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy remains a sensible approach in the second half of the year, but that preparations should be made for short-term fluctuations.

*This is not investment advice.